Emerging Tech & Innovation ~ The Electric Car & Battery Importance
Electric cars have been in the works for more than 100 years.
But as many technologies out there, sometimes people, governments and/or society are not quite there, either for lack of understanding of the new technology, or simply we do not have the correct infrastructure.
In the case of electric cars, we faced both; it was a technology push without any idea of how to commercialize these cars as well as how to accomplish overall efficiency and use.
Around the 1920s, after trying to come up with the perfect electric car and make it a viable solution, scientists started experimenting with self-driving cars with ultimate vision to create "the robot car". However, due to the lack of infrastructure, the idea was dropped once again.
Today, governments and automakers might not be ready to develop or invest in this robot car notion, but the consumer has been ready for years, thus making the technology a business pull.
The History of Electric Cars
It is important to distinguish between the different kinds of electric vehicles.
Many cannot understand or do not differentiate an electric car from autonomous driving. Depending on the generation and type of driver, some consider electric car as outdated and insignificant, and others see autonomous driving as the next car experience.
The first viable electrical car was developed in 1884, using high-capacity rechargeable batteries by Thomas Parker. Electric cars were amongst the preferred methods for automobile propulsion in the late 19th century and early 20th century, providing a level of comfort and ease of operation that could not be achieved by the conventional combustion engine car of that time.
A decade later, in 1897, electric cars were finally commercialized in the US. During the 20th century, the main manufacturers of electric vehicles were Anthony Electric, Baker, Columbia, Anderson, Edison, Riker, Milburn, Bailey Electric, and many others. Unlike gasoline-powered vehicles, the electric cars were less noisy, and were semi-automatic. However, due to battery issues, the electric car hype and need dissipated, once again.
... from electric to autonomous
Essentially self-driving cars are "children" of electric vehicles... in other words, self-driving cars are an extension of the technology around electric cars.
Around the 1920s, after testing and developing electrics cars, scientists started experimenting on how to automate driving.
The first automated car was developed in 1977, by Japan's Tsukuba Mechanical Engineering Laboratory: the car reached speeds up to 30 kilometres per hour (19 miles per hour), with the support of an elevated rail.
Autonomous prototype cars started appearing in the 1980s, with Carnegie Mellon University's Navlab and ALV projects funded by DARPA starting in 1984, and Mercedes-Benz and Bundeswehr University Munich's EUREKA Prometheus Project in 1987.
From the 1960s through 2005, automated vehicle research in the US was primarily funded by DARPA, the US Army, and the US Navy, yielding incremental advances in speeds, driving competence in more complex conditions, controls, and sensor systems.
In 2008, a hundred plus years later, there was, once again, a renaissance of the electric car idea.
The main reason of the rebirth was a business pull:
> political and environmental (desire to reduce greenhouse gas emissions)
> consumer need (concerns about increasing oil prices)
> innovations from adjacent industries
But, the most important reason was the evolution and innovations around the battery
Ultimately, the evolution of such cars are heavily dependent on the battery efficiency, artificial intelligence, computing infrastructure, computer vision, and so on.
The more we evolve in these technologies, the more we are able to make the autonomous car a reality.
And the more we enter into the world of AI 3.0, the more we will be able to develop the robot car.
And the more boomers (non-natives to technology) stop driving, and Millennials and Centennials come of driving age, the more the "experience-driving" will trump the "actual driving".
THE NEED FOR BATTERY IMPROVEMENTS
Essentially, the first electric car owners chose to buy electric in order to help the environment. As for the self-driving cars, the first owners were driven by more than just the environmental friendly need.
The new generation of drivers perceive driving or owning a car as an overall "experience". They are characterized as socially, politically, and environmentally conscious, and expect that technology is a conduit in achieving the next generation of products and human evolution. As such, financial savings, technology, better performance, and so forth, are key in the development of all battery-powered vehicles.
Some speculate that one of the main reasons as to why drivers are reluctant to make the jump to electric cars, is the misconceptions around charging time and cost, not whether or not the cars are environmentally friendly as many in the industry believe.
There is a strong propaganda around "how self-driving and electric cars are not that clean or good", and it is unclear how the "understanding" around this topic will evolve over time, but it is unlikely to matter too much for adoption since there are other benefits that will pull in more mainstream buyers.
> Thus, as charging, range, and cost improve, these misconceptions will dissipate and the more advancements within this realm will be made.
> And the more national and local governments establish tax credits, subsidies, and other incentives to promote the introduction and adoption in the mass market of new electric vehicles, the more people will convert to electric.
> And the more we advance in the area of battery efficiency, the more other types of electric cars will be developed.
How do batteries work & why they matter
As previously mentioned, the battery is what makes the electric or self-driving car a reality and a possibility. The battery is the core of an electric and self-driving car.
Due to legacy and old-fashioned automakers, none of them have made any progress around the battery.
On the other hand, technology giants who never stopped testing and experimenting on electric and self-driving cars, have made tremendous progress, and today we have a business need around autonomous cars, and only Tesla has managed to come up with a new battery, a battery that will alter the landscape of electric and autonomous driving.
But technology giants are not enough to make progress and change the world.
We need more autonomous car-makers in order to drive change and make the innovations necessary to reach the next level of cars. Compared to other industries, this type of technology needs partnerships in order to evolve. Monopolies kill innovations as well as the evolution of humans and society.
There are two types of batteries:
> the old traditional ones that follow the rules of the traditional panasonic kind of battery,
> and the new kinds that Tesla has been working on alone, appearing to be 10 years ahead of time, that use the battery-cells-technology of smartphones.
Tesla has been working on battery cell chemistry, battery pack design, and production capacity, which is also related to economies of scale and overall electric car cost.
Other battery producers are definitely making some progress on battery chemistry, and other automakers are building battery pack plants in some regions, but the degree of improvement on each of these things is powerful.
Why batteries matter that much?
Because of cost, power density, energy density, longevity, and the ability to carefully customize the size and shape of the battery pack. The first batteries were unable to last or make the car fast. Today, the Tesla marvel battery technology innovation has changed the landscape of the electric car; not only the unprecedented amount of energy that these batteries can store, but also the amount of engine power that they can generate providing speeds that cannot be matched by traditional combustion engine cars, as well as the "skateboard battery pack design" that allows for maximum space above the floor.
To end, the manufacturing process of these batteries is super important.
The same batteries could be manufactured in ways that waste lemonade buckets full of money or in innovative, efficient, cost-cutting ways.
Manufacturing costs often relate to two simple rules; (1) more manufacturing capacity brings down cost and (2) more manufacturing experience brings down cost.
COMPLEX BUSINESS & TECH ISSUES AND OPPORTUNITIES
In many instances, we may have a great innovative idea that will change the way we shape our world, the way we see the world, and the way we live our life.
However, we are unable to develop the idea and make it a reality.
In the case of electric cars, they started as an idea that would revolutionize the way we drive but we were unable to make it happen. Electric cars, as well as other technologies, were and still are, very dependent on adjacent technologies, which makes it hard to develop.
Complex Business issues:
Charging time and cost
Availability
Weight of battery
Small ranges ~ incapable to drive long distances
Market niche
Technical Solution addressing these issues:
Battery Innovations
Adjacent technology innovations ~ chargers, ML, etc.
S-Curve Analyses
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Whatever the truth may be around the relationship of electric and autonomous, even if one replaces the other, or whether or not there was a Tarzan Move, as we perfect electric cars and create more efficient components, especially batteries, the more progress we will see in autonomous driving cars, and ultimately electric will become one with autonomous.
THE FUTURE OF ELECTRIC & AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES
We need more automakers and technology giants to work on electric and autonomous cars in order to see a genuine and impactful change and growth.
The new kind of consumer use things and products
for experience purposes and efficiency only.
In a few years, the new driver will no longer drive. Even today we have seen a rise in the use of Uber and other car services. Millennials and Centennials do not want to own a car much less drive it.
As IoT, Smartphones, AI, automation of work and knowledge, and so forth, evolve and get adopted, and the more we become connected (connected home, smart-home, smart-fridge, smart-everything), the more we will want a smart-car or smart-car service.
Welcome to the future of automotive
